Stock / Symbol: Apple Inc / AAPL
Option Strategy: [private_monthly]bull put spread[/private_monthly]
Price at trade post: $543
Reasoning: Going take advantage of it's recent drop due to speculation that it's margins won't be as good in the future, and put a [private_monthly]bullish[/private_monthly] bet on AAPL. AAPL's standard deviation calculations come in at [private_monthly]465[/private_monthly], so we're going to play around that number with our [private_monthly]short puts[/private_monthly]. This trade has a delta of 4.28, a positive theta of 4.15 and a negative vega of -10.45. The probability of success on this trade is 86%. If AAPL trades [private_monthly]down to $515, we'll either stop out of the trade or adjust the position.[/private_monthly] I'm looking for at credit of at least $1.00 on the trade, and would rather not get in the position if I don't get it.
Trade Details:[private_monthly]
STO -2 AAPL Jan13 460 puts
BTO 2 AAPL Jan13 450 puts
for a min net credit of $1.00 per contract (day order, limit order). If not filled today, ok to try again tomorrow.
Requirements:
Cost/Proceeds ($200)
Total Requirements $1800
Estimated Commission $6
[/private_monthly]
Max Risk: $1800
Max Reward: $200 or 11% [private_monthly]at $460+ by Jan 18
Profit Range: $460 + by Dec 21
Suggested Downside stop: @ $515
[/private_monthly]
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